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Microchip Technology Inc. (MCHP) vs HY Bond Spread
Correlation
of % moves
-43%
In sync
of periods
36%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-08
750
These move opposite each other about 36% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~18% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
35.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-43%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-48% → -37%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
750 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,255
784
Normalized
1,255
784
Prepared
1,255
784
Aligned
750
750
Invalid removed
R²(i)
18.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
750
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-43%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
749 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-43%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-43%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-12%
26 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-13%
47 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-75%
176 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
539
A: 505 / B: 34
Series A
MCHP
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Series B
HY Bond Spread
BAMLH0A0HYM2
FRED · 784 raw → 784 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
31
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.3168
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0006
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2_stock-mchp_daily_5y