SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move opposite each other about 52% of the time
Moderate inverse
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Mastercard is the second-largest payment processor in the world, having processed close to $11 trillion in volume during 2025. Mastercard operates in over 200 countries and processes transactions in over 150 currencies.
Market cap 451.6B · 39,800 employees
Toncoin
TON
Layer 1 · USD pair
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recent correlation (+71%) is 2.7σ from the long-run average of -63% — pair is behaving differently than usual.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (+3%) and fall (+17%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-63%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
482 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with Toncoin at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-63%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-68% → -57%
Likely range
R²
39.1%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
52.0%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
482
Robust
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
482 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,255
703
Normalized
1,255
703
Prepared
1,255
703
Aligned
482
482
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+3%
71 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+17%
62 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-37%
116 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
994
A: 773 / B: 221
Series A
Mastercard Incorporated
MA
Market cap 451.6B · 39,800 employees
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Series B
Toncoin
TON
Crypto · 703 raw → 703 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
25
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0276
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
18.3053
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: crypto-ton_stock-ma_5y