SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move together about 63% of the time
Strong positive
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Mastercard is the second-largest payment processor in the world, having processed close to $11 trillion in volume during 2025. Mastercard operates in over 200 countries and processes transactions in over 150 currencies.
Market cap 451.6B · 39,800 employees
McDonald's is the world's largest restaurant brand, with nearly $139 billion in systemwide sales across more than 45,000 restaurants and over 100 markets. The quick-service chain built its early reputation on speed, consistency, and affordable hamburgers, and today its global menu spans burgers, chicken, breakfast, and beverages that have helped popularize American fast-food cuisine worldwide. The firm derives the bulk of its revenue from franchise royalties and rent (about 62%), with the remainder stemming from company-operated restaurants across three segments: the United States (39% of systemwide sales), international operated markets (35%), and international developmental/licensed market
Market cap 206.3B · 150,000 employees
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recent correlation (-6%) is 3.2σ from the long-run average of +81% — pair is behaving differently than usual.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (+41%) and fall (+34%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+81%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,255 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with McDonald's Corporation at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
+81%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
+79% → +82%
Likely range
R²
65.0%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
62.9%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,255
Deep
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,255 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,255
1,255
Normalized
1,255
1,255
Prepared
1,255
1,255
Aligned
1,255
1,255
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+41%
102 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+34%
84 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-44%
63 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
Mastercard Incorporated
MA
Market cap 451.6B · 39,800 employees
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Series B
McDonald's Corporation
MCD
Market cap 206.3B · 150,000 employees
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.2440
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
171.2350
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 hours ago · ID: stock-ma_stock-mcd_5y
MCD
McDonald's Corporation
Strongest positive