SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
-88%
of values
In sync
54%
of periods
History
137
days · through 2026-01-01
These move opposite each other about 54% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount in the opposite direction (~77% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Time Series
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Mostly stable
The relationship drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-88%
Based on values
95% CI
-91% → -83%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
137 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
411
269
Normalized
411
269
Prepared
411
269
Aligned
137
137
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
R²(i)
76.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
137
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-88%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
137 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-88%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-88%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+41%
56 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+97%
15 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-13%
65 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
406
A: 274 / B: 132
Series A
Retail Sales
RSAFS
FRED · 411 raw → 411 prepared
Series B
Velocity of M2 Money Stock
M2V
FRED · 269 raw → 269 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.4357
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-m2v_fred-rsafs_5y