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Correlation
of values
-43%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
532
These move in the same direction about 49% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~19% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-43%
Based on values
95% CI
-50% → -36%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
532 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
808
11,110
Normalized
808
11,110
Prepared
808
534
Aligned
532
532
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
18.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
532
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-43%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
532 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-43%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-43%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-18%
25 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-18%
38 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
278
A: 276 / B: 2
Series A
M2 Money Supply
M2SL
FRED · 808 raw → 808 prepared
Series B
10Y-3M Yield Spread
T10Y3M
FRED · 11,110 raw → 534 prepared
Sign agreement
89.1%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0001
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.2657
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-m2sl_fred-t10y3m_monthly_5y