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Correlation
of values
-54%
In sync
of periods
43%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
420
These move in the same direction about 43% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~30% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
15Y Mortgage Rate moves ~18 months before M2 Money Supply
Watch 15Y Mortgage Rate for an early read on M2 Money Supply.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
43%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-54%
Based on values
95% CI
-61% → -47%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
420 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
811
1,828
Normalized
811
1,828
Prepared
811
422
Aligned
420
420
Invalid removed
R²(i)
30%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
420
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
-66%
+11% stronger than no-shift baseline
15Y Mortgage Rate shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does M2 Money Supply today line up with 15Y Mortgage Rate 18 months ago?"
402 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-54%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
-66%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+3%
40 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+51%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-26%
58 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
393
A: 391 / B: 2
Series A
M2 Money Supply
M2SL
FRED · 811 raw → 811 prepared
Series B
15Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE15US
FRED · 1,828 raw → 422 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0002
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
6.8271
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-m2sl_fred-mortgage15us_monthly_5y