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Correlation
of values
+90%
In sync
of periods
61%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
281
These move in the same direction about 61% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~81% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
60.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+90%
Based on values
95% CI
+87% → +92%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
281 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,225
808
Normalized
1,225
808
Prepared
283
808
Aligned
281
281
Invalid removed
R²(i)
81.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
281
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+90%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
281 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+90%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+90%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+33%
98 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+57%
36 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-62%
84 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
529
A: 2 / B: 527
Series A
Fed Balance Sheet
WALCL
FRED · 1,225 raw → 283 prepared
Series B
M1 Money Supply
M1SL
FRED · 808 raw → 808 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0025
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-3476.1126
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-m1sl_fred-walcl_monthly_5y