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Correlation
of values
-43%
In sync
of periods
51%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
654
These move in the same direction about 51% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~19% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-43%
Based on values
95% CI
-49% → -37%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
654 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
672
808
Normalized
672
808
Prepared
672
808
Aligned
654
654
Invalid removed
R²(i)
18.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
654
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-43%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
654 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-43%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-43%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-52%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-17%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-62%
13 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
172
A: 18 / B: 154
Series A
Consumer Sentiment
UMCSENT
FRED · 672 raw → 672 prepared
Series B
M1 Money Supply
M1SL
FRED · 808 raw → 808 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-178.4045
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
18273.3201
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-m1sl_fred-umcsent_monthly_5y