Correlation
of values
+84%
In sync
of periods
60%
History
daysdays · through 2026-03-01
807
These move in the same direction about 60% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~71% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Explore
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
59.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+84%
Based on values
95% CI
+82% → +86%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
807 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
807
807
Normalized
807
807
Prepared
807
807
Aligned
807
807
Invalid removed
R²(i)
71.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
807
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+84%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
807 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+84%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+84%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+68%
122 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+34%
30 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-57%
97 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
Bank Reserves
TOTRESNS
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Series B
M1 Money Supply
M1SL
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
3.8706
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
108.5761
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 days ago · ID: fred-m1sl_fred-totresns_5y
Explore
Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.