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Correlation
of values
+39%
In sync
of periods
61%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
281
These move in the same direction about 61% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~15% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
M1 Money Supply moves ~8 months before 5Y Breakeven Inflation
Watch M1 Money Supply for an early read on 5Y Breakeven Inflation.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
61%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+39%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
281 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
5,881
809
Normalized
5,881
809
Prepared
283
809
Aligned
281
281
Invalid removed
15%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
281
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-8 months
Correlation at this shift
+44%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
M1 Money Supply shifted 8 months later. Reads: "Does 5Y Breakeven Inflation today line up with M1 Money Supply 8 months ago?"
273 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+39%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-8 months
+44%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-7%
97 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-13%
37 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-36%
84 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
530
A: 2 / B: 528
Series A
5Y Breakeven Inflation
T5YIE
FRED · 5,881 raw → 283 prepared
Series B
M1 Money Supply
M1SL
FRED · 809 raw → 809 prepared
Sign agreement
98.9%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
5039.2184
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-3273.0829
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-m1sl_fred-t5yie_monthly_5y