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Correlation
of values
+38%
In sync
of periods
60%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
280
These move in the same direction about 60% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~15% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
M1 Money Supply moves ~8 months before 5Y Breakeven Inflation
Watch M1 Money Supply for an early read on 5Y Breakeven Inflation.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
60.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+38%
Based on values
95% CI
+28% → +48%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
280 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
5,862
808
Normalized
5,862
808
Prepared
282
808
Aligned
280
280
Invalid removed
R²(i)
14.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
280
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-8 months
Correlation at this shift
+43%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
M1 Money Supply shifted 8 months later. Reads: "Does 5Y Breakeven Inflation today line up with M1 Money Supply 8 months ago?"
272 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+38%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-8 months
+43%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-7%
102 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-5%
35 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-38%
82 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
530
A: 2 / B: 528
Series A
5Y Breakeven Inflation
T5YIE
FRED · 5,862 raw → 282 prepared
Series B
M1 Money Supply
M1SL
FRED · 808 raw → 808 prepared
Sign agreement
98.9%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
4965.6967
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-3163.9657
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-m1sl_fred-t5yie_monthly_5y