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Correlation
of values
-46%
In sync
of periods
55%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
532
These move in the same direction about 55% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~21% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
M1 Money Supply moves ~18 months before 10Y-3M Yield Spread
Watch M1 Money Supply for an early read on 10Y-3M Yield Spread.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
54.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-46%
Based on values
95% CI
-52% → -39%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
532 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
11,110
808
Normalized
11,110
808
Prepared
534
808
Aligned
532
532
Invalid removed
R²(i)
21.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
532
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
-52%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
M1 Money Supply shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does 10Y-3M Yield Spread today line up with M1 Money Supply 18 months ago?"
514 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-46%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
-52%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-20%
18 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-22%
14 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-27%
30 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
278
A: 2 / B: 276
Series A
10Y-3M Yield Spread
T10Y3M
FRED · 11,110 raw → 534 prepared
Series B
M1 Money Supply
M1SL
FRED · 808 raw → 808 prepared
Sign agreement
89.1%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-2213.1878
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
7290.2169
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-m1sl_fred-t10y3m_monthly_5y