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Correlation
of values
-21%
In sync
of periods
51%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
599
These move in the same direction about 51% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~4% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
M1 Money Supply moves ~18 months before 10Y-2Y Yield Spread
Watch M1 Money Supply for an early read on 10Y-2Y Yield Spread.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
51.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-21%
Based on values
95% CI
-28% → -13%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
599 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
12,501
808
Normalized
12,501
808
Prepared
601
808
Aligned
599
599
Invalid removed
R²(i)
4.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
599
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
-27%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
M1 Money Supply shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does 10Y-2Y Yield Spread today line up with M1 Money Supply 18 months ago?"
581 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-21%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
-27%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-20%
15 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-10%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-37%
29 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
211
A: 2 / B: 209
Series A
10Y-2Y Yield Spread
T10Y2Y
FRED · 12,501 raw → 601 prepared
Series B
M1 Money Supply
M1SL
FRED · 808 raw → 808 prepared
Sign agreement
83.5%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1319.9635
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
4608.2854
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-m1sl_fred-t10y2y_monthly_5y