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Correlation
of values
+79%
In sync
of periods
68%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
119
These move in the same direction about 68% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~62% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
67.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+79%
Based on values
95% CI
+71% → +85%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
119 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
2,515
807
Normalized
2,515
807
Prepared
121
807
Aligned
119
119
Invalid removed
R²(i)
61.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
119
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+79%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
119 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+79%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+79%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+10%
63 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+15%
17 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-66%
38 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
690
A: 2 / B: 688
Series A
S&P 500
SP500
FRED · 2,515 raw → 121 prepared
Series B
M1 Money Supply
M1SL
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
4.3983
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-4457.0629
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-m1sl_fred-sp500_monthly_5y