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Litecoin (LTC) vs Nonfarm Payrolls
Correlation
of % moves
+39%
In sync
of periods
59%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
23
These move in the same direction about 59% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~15% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Nonfarm Payrolls moves ~8 months before LTC
Watch Nonfarm Payrolls for an early read on LTC.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
59%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+39%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-4% → +70%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
23 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
729
1,051
Normalized
729
1,051
Prepared
25
1,051
Aligned
23
23
Invalid removed
R²(i)
15%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
22
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 months.
Selected shift
-8 months
Correlation at this shift
+63%
+24% stronger than no-shift baseline
Nonfarm Payrolls shifted 8 months later. Reads: "Does Litecoin (LTC) today line up with Nonfarm Payrolls 8 months ago?"
14 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+39%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-8 months
+63%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+38%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+48%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-47%
9 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,030
A: 2 / B: 1028
Series A
Litecoin (LTC)
LTC
Crypto · 729 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
Nonfarm Payrolls
PAYEMS
FRED · 1,051 raw → 1,051 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0016
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0003
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: crypto-ltc_fred-payems_monthly_5y