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Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) vs Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef
Correlation
of % moves
+15%
In sync
of periods
60%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
58
These move in the same direction about 60% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~2% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
LLY moves ~12 months before Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef
Watch LLY for an early read on Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
60.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+15%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-12% → +40%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
58 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
506
Normalized
1,254
506
Prepared
60
506
Aligned
58
58
Invalid removed
R²(i)
2.3%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
58
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+12 months
Correlation at this shift
+29%
+14% stronger than no-shift baseline
Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef shifted 12 months earlier. Reads: "Does Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) today line up with Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef 12 months from now?"
39 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+15%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+12 months
+29%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+29%
24 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-25%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-52%
23 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
450
A: 2 / B: 448
Series A
Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY)
LLY
Stock · 1,254 raw → 60 prepared
Series B
Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef
APU0000703112
FRED · 506 raw → 506 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0421
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0068
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-apu0000703112_stock-lly_monthly_5y