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Kenvue Inc. (KVUE) vs Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Correlation
of % moves
-39%
In sync
of periods
27%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
37
These move in the same direction about 27% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~15% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
KVUE moves ~12 months before Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Watch KVUE for an early read on Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
27%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-39%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
37 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
797
798
Normalized
797
798
Prepared
39
798
Aligned
37
37
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
15%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
35
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+12 months
Correlation at this shift
+56%
+17% stronger than no-shift baseline
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator shifted 12 months earlier. Reads: "Does Kenvue Inc. (KVUE) today line up with Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator 12 months from now?"
16 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-39%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+12 months
+56%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+24%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-75%
27 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
763
A: 2 / B: 761
Series A
Kenvue Inc. (KVUE)
KVUE
Stock · 797 raw → 39 prepared
Series B
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
SAHMREALTIME
FRED · 798 raw → 798 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.9390
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0097
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-sahmrealtime_stock-kvue_monthly_5y