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Kenvue Inc. (KVUE) vs Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Correlation
of % moves
-39%
In sync
of periods
28%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-08
39
These move in the same direction about 28% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~16% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
KVUE moves ~10 months before Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Watch KVUE for an early read on Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
28%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-39%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-64% → -8%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
39 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
840
800
Normalized
840
800
Prepared
41
800
Aligned
39
39
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
16%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
37
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -17 to 17 months.
Selected shift
+10 months
Correlation at this shift
-52%
+12% stronger than no-shift baseline
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator shifted 10 months earlier. Reads: "Does Kenvue Inc. (KVUE) today line up with Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator 10 months from now?"
18 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-39%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+10 months
-52%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+36%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-76%
28 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
763
A: 2 / B: 761
Series A
Kenvue Inc. (KVUE)
KVUE
Stock · 840 raw → 41 prepared
Series B
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
SAHMREALTIME
FRED · 800 raw → 800 prepared
Sign agreement
94.9%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.3963
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0106
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-sahmrealtime_stock-kvue_monthly_5y