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Correlation
of % moves
-44%
In sync
of periods
67%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-01
19
These move opposite each other about 67% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~19% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
US GDP moves ~3 months before KTOS
Watch US GDP for an early read on KTOS.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
66.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-44%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-75% → +4%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
19 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,255
317
Normalized
1,255
317
Prepared
61
317
Aligned
19
19
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
18.9%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
19
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -8 to 8 months.
Selected shift
-3 months
Correlation at this shift
-70%
+26% stronger than no-shift baseline
US GDP shifted 3 months later. Reads: "Does Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS) today line up with US GDP 3 months ago?"
15 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-44%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-3 months
-70%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-43%
6 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
340
A: 42 / B: 298
Series A
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS)
KTOS
Stock · 1,255 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
US GDP
GDP
FRED · 317 raw → 317 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0113
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0167
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-gdp_stock-ktos_monthly_5y