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The Kroger Co. (KR) vs Debt-to-GDP Ratio
Correlation
of % moves
-30%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
monthsmonths · through 2025-10
18
These move opposite each other about 47% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~9% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Debt-to-GDP Ratio moves ~6 months before KR
Watch Debt-to-GDP Ratio for an early read on KR.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-30%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-68% → +21%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
18 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
240
Normalized
1,254
240
Prepared
61
240
Aligned
18
18
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
9.2%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
18
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -7 to 7 months.
Selected shift
-6 months
Correlation at this shift
+58%
+28% stronger than no-shift baseline
Debt-to-GDP Ratio shifted 6 months later. Reads: "Does The Kroger Co. (KR) today line up with Debt-to-GDP Ratio 6 months ago?"
11 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-30%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-6 months
+58%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-9%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-83%
9 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
265
A: 43 / B: 222
Series A
The Kroger Co. (KR)
KR
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Debt-to-GDP Ratio
GFDEGDQ188S
FRED · 240 raw → 240 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0327
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0030
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-gfdegdq188s_stock-kr_monthly_5y