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Correlation
of % moves
-25%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-01
19
These move opposite each other about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~6% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Real GDP moves ~2 months before KR
Watch Real GDP for an early read on KR.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-25%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-64% → +25%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
19 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
317
Normalized
1,254
317
Prepared
61
317
Aligned
19
19
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
6.1%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
19
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -8 to 8 months.
Selected shift
-2 months
Correlation at this shift
+55%
+30% stronger than no-shift baseline
Real GDP shifted 2 months later. Reads: "Does The Kroger Co. (KR) today line up with Real GDP 2 months ago?"
16 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-25%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-2 months
+55%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-28%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-59%
9 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
340
A: 42 / B: 298
Series A
The Kroger Co. (KR)
KR
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Real GDP
GDPC1
FRED · 317 raw → 317 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0111
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0065
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-gdpc1_stock-kr_monthly_5y