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KR vs FMonetary BaseThe Kroger Co. (KR) vs Monetary Base
Correlation
of % moves
+29%
In sync
of periods
52%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
59
These move in the same direction about 52% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~8% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
KR moves ~12 months before Monetary Base
Watch KR for an early read on Monetary Base.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
51.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+29%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+3% → +51%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
59 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
807
Normalized
1,254
807
Prepared
61
807
Aligned
59
59
Invalid removed
R²(i)
8.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
59
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+12 months
Correlation at this shift
+38%
+10% stronger than no-shift baseline
Monetary Base shifted 12 months earlier. Reads: "Does The Kroger Co. (KR) today line up with Monetary Base 12 months from now?"
46 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+29%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+12 months
+38%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+30%
17 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+65%
13 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-36%
28 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
750
A: 2 / B: 748
Series A
The Kroger Co. (KR)
KR
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Monetary Base
BOGMBASE
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0925
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0028
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-bogmbase_stock-kr_monthly_5y