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Keysight Technologies, Inc. (KEYS) vs Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Correlation
of % moves
-27%
In sync
of periods
24%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
59
These move in the same direction about 24% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~8% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
KEYS moves ~1 month before Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Watch KEYS for an early read on Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
24.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-27%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-50% → -2%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
59 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,255
797
Normalized
1,255
797
Prepared
61
797
Aligned
59
59
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
7.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
59
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+1 month
Correlation at this shift
-38%
+11% stronger than no-shift baseline
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator shifted 1 month earlier. Reads: "Does Keysight Technologies, Inc. (KEYS) today line up with Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator 1 month from now?"
55 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-27%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+1 month
-38%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-32%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-53%
45 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
740
A: 2 / B: 738
Series A
Keysight Technologies, Inc. (KEYS)
KEYS
Stock · 1,255 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
SAHMREALTIME
FRED · 797 raw → 797 prepared
Sign agreement
74.1%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
9
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.9785
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0088
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-sahmrealtime_stock-keys_monthly_5y