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Correlation
of values
-60%
In sync
of periods
40%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
303
These move opposite each other about 40% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~36% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
40.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-60%
Based on values
95% CI
-67% → -52%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
303 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
939
304
Normalized
939
304
Prepared
939
304
Aligned
303
303
Invalid removed
R²(i)
36.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
303
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-60%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
303 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-60%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-60%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+11%
29 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-19%
41 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-58%
179 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
637
A: 636 / B: 1
Series A
Unemployment Rate
UNRATE
FRED · 939 raw → 939 prepared
Series B
Job Openings
JTSJOL
FRED · 304 raw → 304 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-704.1863
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
9487.7564
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-jtsjol_fred-unrate_monthly_5y