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Correlation
of values
-61%
In sync
of periods
40%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
307
These move in the same direction about 40% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~37% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Swings around
Their relationship swings around — sometimes tight, sometimes loose. Don't trust a single snapshot.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
40%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-61%
Based on values
95% CI
-67% → -53%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
307 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
943
308
Normalized
943
308
Prepared
943
308
Aligned
307
307
Invalid removed
R²(i)
37%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
307
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-61%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
307 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-61%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-61%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-2%
27 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-24%
26 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-48%
138 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
637
A: 636 / B: 1
Series A
Unemployment Rate
UNRATE
FRED · 943 raw → 943 prepared
Series B
Job Openings
JTSJOL
FRED · 308 raw → 308 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-708.5761
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
9524.2087
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-jtsjol_fred-unrate_monthly_5y