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Correlation
of values
+84%
In sync
of periods
55%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
305
These move in the same direction about 55% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~71% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
55.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+84%
Based on values
95% CI
+81% → +87%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
305 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,000
305
Normalized
1,000
305
Prepared
1,000
305
Aligned
305
305
Invalid removed
R²(i)
70.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
305
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+84%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
305 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+84%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+84%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+15%
90 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+34%
16 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-33%
90 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
695
A: 695 / B: 0
Series A
Total Consumer Credit
TOTALSL
FRED · 1,000 raw → 1,000 prepared
Series B
Job Openings
JTSJOL
FRED · 305 raw → 305 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0019
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-611.0616
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-jtsjol_fred-totalsl_monthly_5y