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Correlation
of values
-31%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
305
These move in the same direction about 47% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~10% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
St. Louis Financial Stress Index moves ~8 months before Job Openings
Watch St. Louis Financial Stress Index for an early read on Job Openings.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-31%
Based on values
95% CI
-41% → -21%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
305 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,692
305
Normalized
1,692
305
Prepared
390
305
Aligned
305
305
Invalid removed
R²(i)
9.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
305
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+8 months
Correlation at this shift
-37%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
Job Openings shifted 8 months earlier. Reads: "Does St. Louis Financial Stress Index today line up with Job Openings 8 months from now?"
297 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-31%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+8 months
-37%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-9%
42 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+46%
46 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-60%
109 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
85
A: 85 / B: 0
Series A
St. Louis Financial Stress Index
STLFSI4
FRED · 1,692 raw → 390 prepared
Series B
Job Openings
JTSJOL
FRED · 305 raw → 305 prepared
Sign agreement
37.4%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-647.0565
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
5502.9823
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-jtsjol_fred-stlfsi4_monthly_5y