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Correlation
of values
+80%
In sync
of periods
54%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
306
These move in the same direction about 54% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~64% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Job Openings moves ~18 months before Personal Consumption
Watch Job Openings for an early read on Personal Consumption.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
54%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+80%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
306 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
809
306
Normalized
809
306
Prepared
809
306
Aligned
306
306
Invalid removed
64%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
306
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+86%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
Job Openings shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Personal Consumption today line up with Job Openings 18 months ago?"
288 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+80%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+86%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+47%
91 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+92%
14 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-49%
90 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
503
A: 503 / B: 0
Series A
Personal Consumption
PCE
FRED · 809 raw → 809 prepared
Series B
Job Openings
JTSJOL
FRED · 306 raw → 306 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
23
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.4546
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-160.8944
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-jtsjol_fred-pce_monthly_5y