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Correlation
of values
+80%
In sync
of periods
54%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
305
These move in the same direction about 54% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~65% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Job Openings moves ~18 months before Personal Consumption
Watch Job Openings for an early read on Personal Consumption.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
54.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+80%
Based on values
95% CI
+76% → +84%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
305 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
808
305
Normalized
808
305
Prepared
808
305
Aligned
305
305
Invalid removed
R²(i)
64.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
305
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+86%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
Job Openings shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Personal Consumption today line up with Job Openings 18 months ago?"
287 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+80%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+86%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+48%
90 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+94%
15 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-49%
90 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
503
A: 503 / B: 0
Series A
Personal Consumption
PCE
FRED · 808 raw → 808 prepared
Series B
Job Openings
JTSJOL
FRED · 305 raw → 305 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
23
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.4589
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-207.3061
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-jtsjol_fred-pce_monthly_5y