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Correlation
of % moves
+23%
In sync
of periods
65%
History
daysdays · through 2026-09-14
377
These move in the same direction about 65% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~5% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
65%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+23%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+13% → +33%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
377 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
377
1,253
Normalized
377
1,253
Prepared
377
1,253
Aligned
377
377
Invalid removed
R²(i)
5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
376
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+23%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
376 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+23%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+23%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+29%
83 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+31%
86 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-55%
80 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
876
A: 0 / B: 876
Series A
USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR)
USAR
Stock · 377 raw → 377 prepared
Series B
IWM
Stock · 1,253 raw → 1,253 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0379
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0009
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: stock-iwm_stock-usar_daily_5y