SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move opposite each other about 31% of the time
Very strong inverse
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
iShares Core S&P 500 ETF
IVV
IG Bond Spread
BAMLC0A0CM
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recent correlation (-28%) is 2.7σ from the long-run average of -89% — pair is behaving differently than usual.
Decouples in drawdowns
Correlation weakens when both fall (-1%) vs when both rise (+63%) — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flaky
Correlation swings widely across time windows — careful using this as a point estimate.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-89%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
751 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with IG Bond Spread at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-89%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-90% → -87%
Likely range
R²
78.4%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
31.3%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
751
Deep
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
751 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,255
785
Normalized
1,255
785
Prepared
1,255
785
Aligned
751
751
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+63%
26 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-1%
32 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-79%
191 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
538
A: 504 / B: 34
Series A
iShares Core S&P 500 ETF
IVV
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Series B
BAMLC0A0CM
FRED · 785 raw → 785 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
21
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0019
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.0514
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 1 hour ago · ID: fred-bamlc0a0cm_stock-ivv_5y
BAMLC0A0CM
IG Bond Spread
Strongest positive