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Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) vs USD/MXN Exchange Rate
Correlation
of % moves
-21%
In sync
of periods
43%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
1,238
These move opposite each other about 43% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~5% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Mostly stable
The relationship drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
43.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-21%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-27% → -16%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,238 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
8,153
Normalized
1,254
8,153
Prepared
1,254
8,153
Aligned
1,238
1,238
Invalid removed
R²(i)
4.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,238
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-21%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,237 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-21%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-21%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-13%
39 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-10%
49 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-72%
161 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
6,931
A: 16 / B: 6915
Series A
Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW)
ITW
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
USD/MXN Exchange Rate
DEXMXUS
FRED · 8,153 raw → 8,153 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
55
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.1098
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0001
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexmxus_stock-itw_daily_5y