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Correlation
of values
-64%
In sync
of periods
51%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
58
These move in the same direction about 51% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~42% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Bank Reserves moves ~7 months before Interest on Reserve Balances
Watch Bank Reserves for an early read on Interest on Reserve Balances.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
51.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-64%
Based on values
95% CI
-77% → -46%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
58 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
808
1,777
Normalized
808
1,777
Prepared
808
60
Aligned
58
58
Invalid removed
R²(i)
41.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
58
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+7 months
Correlation at this shift
-85%
+20% stronger than no-shift baseline
Interest on Reserve Balances shifted 7 months earlier. Reads: "Does Bank Reserves today line up with Interest on Reserve Balances 7 months from now?"
51 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-64%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+7 months
-85%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-22%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-6%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-45%
38 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
752
A: 750 / B: 2
Series A
Bank Reserves
TOTRESNS
FRED · 808 raw → 808 prepared
Series B
Interest on Reserve Balances
IORB
FRED · 1,777 raw → 60 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0036
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
15.7782
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-iorb_fred-totresns_monthly_5y