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Correlation
of values
+84%
In sync
of periods
63%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
61
These move in the same direction about 63% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~71% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
63%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+84%
Based on values
95% CI
+75% → +90%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
61 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,003
1,869
Normalized
1,003
1,869
Prepared
1,003
63
Aligned
61
61
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
71%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
61
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+84%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
61 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+84%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+84%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+45%
23 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-3%
35 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
944
A: 942 / B: 2
Series A
Total Consumer Credit
TOTALSL
FRED · 1,003 raw → 1,003 prepared
Series B
Interest on Reserve Balances
IORB
FRED · 1,869 raw → 63 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-32.0764
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-iorb_fred-totalsl_monthly_5y