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Correlation
of values
+76%
In sync
of periods
46%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
60
These move in the same direction about 46% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~58% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Interest on Reserve Balances moves ~4 months before Total Vehicle Sales
Watch Interest on Reserve Balances for an early read on Total Vehicle Sales.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
46%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+76%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
60 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,806
606
Normalized
1,806
606
Prepared
61
606
Aligned
60
60
Invalid removed
58%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
60
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+4 months
Correlation at this shift
+82%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
Total Vehicle Sales shifted 4 months earlier. Reads: "Does Interest on Reserve Balances today line up with Total Vehicle Sales 4 months from now?"
56 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+76%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+4 months
+82%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-3%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+63%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-36%
41 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
547
A: 1 / B: 546
Series A
Interest on Reserve Balances
IORB
FRED · 1,806 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Total Vehicle Sales
TOTALSA
FRED · 606 raw → 606 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
10
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.5088
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
13.7728
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-iorb_fred-totalsa_monthly_5y