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Correlation
of values
-67%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-08
1,194
These move opposite each other about 47% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~44% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
46.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-67%
Based on values
95% CI
-70% → -63%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,194 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
5,842
1,748
Normalized
5,842
1,748
Prepared
5,842
1,748
Aligned
1,194
1,194
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
44.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,194
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-67%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,194 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-67%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-67%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-18%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-5%
237 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
5,202
A: 4648 / B: 554
Series A
10Y Breakeven Inflation
T10YIE
FRED · 5,842 raw → 5,842 prepared
Series B
Interest on Reserve Balances
IORB
FRED · 1,748 raw → 1,748 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
6
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-7.8609
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
22.2546
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-iorb_fred-t10yie_daily_5y