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Correlation
of values
-60%
In sync
of periods
63%
History
daysdays · through 2026-09-08
1,277
These move in the same direction about 63% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~36% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
63%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-60%
Based on values
95% CI
-63% → -56%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,277 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
12,564
1,869
Normalized
12,564
1,869
Prepared
12,564
1,869
Aligned
1,277
1,277
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
36%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
1,277
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-60%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,277 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-60%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-60%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-28%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-12%
127 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
11,879
A: 11287 / B: 592
Series A
10Y-2Y Yield Spread
T10Y2Y
FRED · 12,564 raw → 12,564 prepared
Series B
Interest on Reserve Balances
IORB
FRED · 1,869 raw → 1,869 prepared
Sign agreement
57.5%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
16
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.9065
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
3.8653
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-iorb_fred-t10y2y_daily_5y