Correlation
of values
-60%
In sync
of periods
63%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-01
1,189
These move opposite each other about 63% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~37% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Explore
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
62.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-60%
Based on values
95% CI
-64% → -57%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,189 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
12,476
1,741
Normalized
12,476
1,741
Prepared
12,476
1,741
Aligned
1,189
1,189
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
36.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,189
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-60%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,189 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-60%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-60%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-29%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-5%
237 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
11,839
A: 11287 / B: 552
Series A
10Y-2Y Yield Spread
T10Y2Y
FRED · 12,476 raw → 12,476 prepared
Series B
Interest on Reserve Balances
IORB
FRED · 1,741 raw → 1,741 prepared
Sign agreement
54.3%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
8
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.9566
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
3.8251
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 days ago · ID: fred-iorb_fred-t10y2y_5y
Explore
Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.