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Correlation
of values
+88%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
59
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~77% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+88%
Based on values
95% CI
+81% → +93%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
59 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,777
533
Normalized
1,777
533
Prepared
60
533
Aligned
59
59
Invalid removed
R²(i)
77.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
59
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+88%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
59 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+88%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+88%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-16%
13 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+41%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-45%
39 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
475
A: 1 / B: 474
Series A
Interest on Reserve Balances
IORB
FRED · 1,777 raw → 60 prepared
Series B
10-Year Real Interest Rate
REAINTRATREARAT10Y
FRED · 533 raw → 533 prepared
Sign agreement
96.6%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
2
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.2964
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.3266
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-iorb_fred-reaintratrearat10y_monthly_5y