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Correlation
of values
-80%
In sync
of periods
54%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
58
These move in the same direction about 54% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~64% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
54.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-80%
Based on values
95% CI
-88% → -69%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
58 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
796
1,777
Normalized
796
1,777
Prepared
796
60
Aligned
58
58
Invalid removed
R²(i)
64.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
58
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-80%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
58 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-80%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-80%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-24%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-70%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-50%
37 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
740
A: 738 / B: 2
Series A
Building Permits
PERMIT
FRED · 796 raw → 796 prepared
Series B
Interest on Reserve Balances
IORB
FRED · 1,777 raw → 60 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
9
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0104
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
19.6418
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-iorb_fred-permit_monthly_5y