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Correlation
of values
+83%
In sync
of periods
70%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-08
62
These move in the same direction about 70% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~69% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Interest on Reserve Balances moves ~18 months before Nonfarm Payrolls
Watch Interest on Reserve Balances for an early read on Nonfarm Payrolls.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
70%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+83%
Based on values
95% CI
+73% → +89%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
62 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,052
1,869
Normalized
1,052
1,869
Prepared
1,052
63
Aligned
62
62
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
69%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
62
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+93%
+10% stronger than no-shift baseline
Interest on Reserve Balances shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Nonfarm Payrolls today line up with Interest on Reserve Balances 18 months ago?"
44 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+83%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+93%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+9%
24 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+12%
33 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
991
A: 990 / B: 1
Series A
Nonfarm Payrolls
PAYEMS
FRED · 1,052 raw → 1,052 prepared
Series B
Interest on Reserve Balances
IORB
FRED · 1,869 raw → 63 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0004
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-65.7013
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-iorb_fred-payems_monthly_5y