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Correlation
of values
+28%
In sync
of periods
57%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-18
249
These move in the same direction about 57% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~8% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Chicago Financial Conditions moves ~12 weeks before Interest on Reserve Balances
Watch Chicago Financial Conditions for an early read on Interest on Reserve Balances.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
57.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+28%
Based on values
95% CI
+16% → +39%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
249 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
2,887
1,748
Normalized
2,887
1,748
Prepared
2,887
251
Aligned
249
249
Invalid removed
R²(i)
7.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
249
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
+12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
+50%
+23% stronger than no-shift baseline
Interest on Reserve Balances shifted 12 weeks earlier. Reads: "Does Chicago Financial Conditions today line up with Interest on Reserve Balances 12 weeks from now?"
237 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+28%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+12 weeks
+50%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+76%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+11%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-21%
232 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,640
A: 2638 / B: 2
Series A
Chicago Financial Conditions
NFCI
FRED · 2,887 raw → 2,887 prepared
Series B
Interest on Reserve Balances
IORB
FRED · 1,748 raw → 251 prepared
Sign agreement
0.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
3.7101
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
5.1717
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-iorb_fred-nfci_weekly_5y