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Correlation
of values
-87%
In sync
of periods
18%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
61
These move in the same direction about 18% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount in the opposite direction (~75% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Interest on Reserve Balances moves ~4 months before M1 Money Supply
Watch Interest on Reserve Balances for an early read on M1 Money Supply.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
18%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-87%
Based on values
95% CI
-92% → -79%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
61 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
811
1,869
Normalized
811
1,869
Prepared
811
63
Aligned
61
61
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
75%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
61
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-4 months
Correlation at this shift
-96%
+9% stronger than no-shift baseline
Interest on Reserve Balances shifted 4 months later. Reads: "Does M1 Money Supply today line up with Interest on Reserve Balances 4 months ago?"
57 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-87%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-4 months
-96%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-42%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-54%
53 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
752
A: 750 / B: 2
Series A
M1 Money Supply
M1SL
FRED · 811 raw → 811 prepared
Series B
Interest on Reserve Balances
IORB
FRED · 1,869 raw → 63 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
2
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0017
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
37.0382
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-iorb_fred-m1sl_monthly_5y