• Unemployment Rate moves ~6 days before Industrial Production

  Watch Unemployment Rate for an early read on Industrial Production.

The weak correlation between industrial production (INDPRO) and the unemployment rate (UNRATE) suggests that changes in production levels have only a minor relationship with employment trends over the analyzed period. Although there is a slight tendency for unemployment to lead industrial production by about six months, the overall low alignment indicates that other factors likely drive these economic indicators independently. Investors should be cautious in using this correlation for predictive purposes, as the limited connection means that relying solely on one to forecast the other could lead to misleading conclusions.

See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.

The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.