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Correlation
of values
-49%
In sync
of periods
51%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
664
These move in the same direction about 51% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~24% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Chicago Financial Conditions moves ~18 months before Industrial Production
Watch Chicago Financial Conditions for an early read on Industrial Production.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-49%
Based on values
95% CI
-55% → -43%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
664 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,288
2,891
Normalized
1,288
2,891
Prepared
1,288
665
Aligned
664
664
Invalid removed
R²(i)
24.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
664
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
-55%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
Chicago Financial Conditions shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Industrial Production today line up with Chicago Financial Conditions 18 months ago?"
646 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-49%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
-55%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-2%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+61%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-49%
21 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
625
A: 624 / B: 1
Series A
Industrial Production
INDPRO
FRED · 1,288 raw → 1,288 prepared
Series B
Chicago Financial Conditions
NFCI
FRED · 2,891 raw → 665 prepared
Sign agreement
29.5%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0221
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.6947
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-indpro_fred-nfci_monthly_5y