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Correlation
of values
-49%
In sync
of periods
51%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
667
These move in the same direction about 51% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~24% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Chicago Financial Conditions moves ~18 months before Industrial Production
Watch Chicago Financial Conditions for an early read on Industrial Production.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
51%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-49%
Based on values
95% CI
-55% → -43%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
667 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,291
2,903
Normalized
1,291
2,903
Prepared
1,291
668
Aligned
667
667
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
24%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
667
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
-55%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
Chicago Financial Conditions shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Industrial Production today line up with Chicago Financial Conditions 18 months ago?"
649 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-49%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
-55%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-40%
14 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-34%
22 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
625
A: 624 / B: 1
Series A
Industrial Production
INDPRO
FRED · 1,291 raw → 1,291 prepared
Series B
Chicago Financial Conditions
NFCI
FRED · 2,903 raw → 668 prepared
Sign agreement
29.5%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0222
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.6994
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-indpro_fred-nfci_monthly_5y