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Correlation
of values
+37%
In sync
of periods
51%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-22
1,900
These move in the same direction about 51% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~14% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
VIX moves ~2 weeks before Initial Jobless Claims
Watch VIX for an early read on Initial Jobless Claims.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+37%
Based on values
95% CI
+33% → +41%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,900 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
3,100
9,202
Normalized
3,100
9,202
Prepared
3,100
1,901
Aligned
1,900
1,900
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
13.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,900
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-2 weeks
Correlation at this shift
+42%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
VIX shifted 2 weeks later. Reads: "Does Initial Jobless Claims today line up with VIX 2 weeks ago?"
1,898 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+37%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-2 weeks
+42%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-81%
5 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,201
A: 1200 / B: 1
Series A
Initial Jobless Claims
ICSA
FRED · 3,100 raw → 3,100 prepared
Series B
VIX
VIXCLS
FRED · 9,202 raw → 1,901 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
90
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
15.9610
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-icsa_fred-vixcls_weekly_5y