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Correlation
of values
-32%
In sync
of periods
51%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-22
1,222
These move in the same direction about 51% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~10% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-32%
Based on values
95% CI
-37% → -26%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,222 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
3,100
5,862
Normalized
3,100
5,862
Prepared
3,100
1,224
Aligned
1,222
1,222
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
10.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,222
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-32%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,222 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-32%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-32%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-81%
6 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,880
A: 1878 / B: 2
Series A
Initial Jobless Claims
ICSA
FRED · 3,100 raw → 3,100 prepared
Series B
5Y Breakeven Inflation
T5YIE
FRED · 5,862 raw → 1,224 prepared
Sign agreement
98.9%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
41
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.1423
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-icsa_fred-t5yie_weekly_5y