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Correlation
of values
+12%
In sync
of periods
51%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-35
2,330
These move in the same direction about 51% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~1% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
51%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+12%
Based on values
95% CI
+8% → +16%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
2,330 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
3,113
11,173
Normalized
3,113
11,173
Prepared
3,113
2,332
Aligned
2,330
2,330
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
2,330
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+12%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
2,330 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+12%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+12%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
785
A: 783 / B: 2
Series A
Initial Jobless Claims
ICSA
FRED · 3,113 raw → 3,113 prepared
Series B
10Y-3M Yield Spread
T10Y3M
FRED · 11,173 raw → 2,332 prepared
Sign agreement
88.9%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
117
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.3328
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-icsa_fred-t10y3m_weekly_5y