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Correlation
of values
+31%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-22
1,692
These move in the same direction about 49% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~10% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+31%
Based on values
95% CI
+27% → +35%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,692 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
3,100
1,692
Normalized
3,100
1,692
Prepared
3,100
1,692
Aligned
1,692
1,692
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
9.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,692
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+31%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,692 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+31%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+31%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+25%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,408
A: 1408 / B: 0
Series A
Initial Jobless Claims
ICSA
FRED · 3,100 raw → 3,100 prepared
Series B
St. Louis Financial Stress Index
STLFSI4
FRED · 1,692 raw → 1,692 prepared
Sign agreement
35.3%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
78
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.3593
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-icsa_fred-stlfsi4_weekly_5y