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Correlation
of values
+33%
In sync
of periods
57%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
708
These move in the same direction about 57% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~11% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
57%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+33%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
708 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
3,104
708
Normalized
3,104
708
Prepared
714
708
Aligned
708
708
Invalid removed
11%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
708
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+33%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
708 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+33%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+33%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-17%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+97%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-5%
15 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
6
A: 6 / B: 0
Series A
Initial Jobless Claims
ICSA
FRED · 3,104 raw → 714 prepared
Series B
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
RECPROUSM156N
FRED · 708 raw → 708 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
40
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-3.6536
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-icsa_fred-recprousm156n_monthly_5y