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Correlation
of values
-16%
In sync
of periods
43%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
715
These move in the same direction about 43% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~3% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
43%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-16%
Based on values
95% CI
-23% → -9%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
715 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
799
3,113
Normalized
799
3,113
Prepared
799
716
Aligned
715
715
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
715
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-16%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
715 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-16%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-16%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-21%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-45%
22 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
85
A: 84 / B: 1
Series A
Building Permits
PERMIT
FRED · 799 raw → 799 prepared
Series B
Initial Jobless Claims
ICSA
FRED · 3,113 raw → 716 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
40
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-95.1102
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
493199.0998
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-icsa_fred-permit_monthly_5y