SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move opposite each other about 43% of the time
Weak inverse
Weak relationship — not much actionable signal here beyond directional colour.
Building Permits
PERMIT
Initial Jobless Claims
ICSA
What to Watch
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (+29%) and fall (+12%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-16%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
711 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with Initial Jobless Claims at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-16%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-23% → -9%
Likely range
R²
2.6%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
42.8%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
711
Robust
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
711 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
795
3,095
Normalized
795
3,095
Prepared
795
712
Aligned
711
711
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+29%
51 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+12%
54 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-34%
144 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
85
A: 84 / B: 1
Series A
PERMIT
FRED · 795 raw → 795 prepared
Series B
ICSA
FRED · 3,095 raw → 712 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
38
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-94.9681
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
493804.6263
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred:icsa|fred:permit|5Y
ICSA
Initial Jobless Claims
Strongest positive