Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
-21%
In sync
of periods
43%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
232
These move in the same direction about 43% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~5% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
43.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-21%
Based on values
95% CI
-33% → -9%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
232 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
3,100
232
Normalized
3,100
232
Prepared
713
232
Aligned
232
232
Invalid removed
R²(i)
4.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.01
Statistical confidence
Data points
232
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-21%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
232 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-21%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-21%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+9%
74 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+13%
25 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-91%
132 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
481
A: 481 / B: 0
Series A
Initial Jobless Claims
ICSA
FRED · 3,100 raw → 713 prepared
Series B
Real Personal Consumption
PCEC96
FRED · 232 raw → 232 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
8
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0010
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
13631.9325
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-icsa_fred-pcec96_monthly_5y