Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Internet Computer (ICP) vs Unemployment Rate
Correlation
of % moves
-25%
In sync
of periods
40%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
23
These move in the same direction about 40% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~6% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Unemployment Rate moves ~5 months before ICP
Watch Unemployment Rate for an early read on ICP.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
40.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-25%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-61% → +20%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
23 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
729
939
Normalized
729
939
Prepared
25
939
Aligned
23
23
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
6.2%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
23
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 months.
Selected shift
-5 months
Correlation at this shift
+49%
+24% stronger than no-shift baseline
Unemployment Rate shifted 5 months later. Reads: "Does Internet Computer (ICP) today line up with Unemployment Rate 5 months ago?"
11 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-25%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-5 months
+49%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-83%
15 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
918
A: 2 / B: 916
Series A
Internet Computer (ICP)
ICP
Crypto · 729 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
Unemployment Rate
UNRATE
FRED · 939 raw → 939 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0382
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0005
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: crypto-icp_fred-unrate_monthly_5y