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ICP vs FRetail SalesInternet Computer (ICP) vs Retail Sales
Correlation
of % moves
+22%
In sync
of periods
52%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
24
These move in the same direction about 52% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~5% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
ICP moves ~13 months before Retail Sales
Watch ICP for an early read on Retail Sales.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+22%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-21% → +58%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
24 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
729
412
Normalized
729
412
Prepared
25
412
Aligned
24
24
Invalid removed
R²(i)
4.8%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
24
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -13 to 13 months.
Selected shift
+13 months
Correlation at this shift
-84%
+62% stronger than no-shift baseline
Retail Sales shifted 13 months earlier. Reads: "Does Internet Computer (ICP) today line up with Retail Sales 13 months from now?"
10 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+22%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+13 months
-84%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-50%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+4%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-16%
11 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
389
A: 1 / B: 388
Series A
Internet Computer (ICP)
ICP
Crypto · 729 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
Retail Sales
RSAFS
FRED · 412 raw → 412 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0071
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0043
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: crypto-icp_fred-rsafs_monthly_5y