SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move together about 64% of the time
Very strong positive
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Mastercard is the second-largest payment processor in the world, having processed close to $11 trillion in volume during 2025. Mastercard operates in over 200 countries and processes transactions in over 150 currencies.
Market cap 451.6B · 39,800 employees
Incorporated in 1911, International Business Machines, or IBM, is one of the oldest technology companies in the world. It provides software, IT consulting services, and hardware to help business customers modernize their technology workflows. IBM operates in 175 countries and employs approximately 300,000 people. The company has a robust roster of business partners to service its clients, which includes 95% of all Fortune 500 companies. IBM's products, including Red Hat, watsonx, and mainframes, handle some of the world's most important data workloads in areas like finance and retail.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recent correlation (+38%) is 2.2σ from the long-run average of +94% — pair is behaving differently than usual.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (+22%) and fall (+30%) — reliable in both directions.
Flaky
Correlation swings widely across time windows — careful using this as a point estimate.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+94%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,255 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with International Business Machines Corporation at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
+94%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
+94% → +95%
Likely range
R²
89.0%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
63.7%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,255
Deep
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,255 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,255
1,255
Normalized
1,255
1,255
Prepared
1,255
1,255
Aligned
1,255
1,255
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Market cap 214.3B · 287,000 employees
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+22%
107 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+30%
85 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-49%
57 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
Mastercard Incorporated
MA
Market cap 451.6B · 39,800 employees
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Series B
International Business Machines Corporation
IBM
Market cap 214.3B · 287,000 employees
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
55
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.6350
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-94.0247
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 1 hour ago · ID: stock-ibm_stock-ma_5y
IBM
International Business Machines Corporation
Strongest positive